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Duke Hoop Blog

Posts from the ‘Offensive Charting’ Category

8
Feb

Duke Scouting Report — Player By Player

Much has been made of Duke’s defensive struggles on offense this season, but what seems to get brushed under the rug is just how efficient the Blue Devils have been offensively. Their adjusted offense according to Ken Pomeroy is 5th best in the country. The team also boasts the 11th highest points per possession number in the nation, good for 1st in the ACC, according to Statsheet.com. Scoring 75.2 points per game puts them as the 35th most potent offense nationally, and 2nd in conference. Looking at the players individually, it is easy to see why Duke is able to put up points at such a high rate.

Starters

Tyler Thornton Scouting Report 2011-2012

Tyler Thornton — 18.4 mpg | 3.7 Points Per Game | 2 Assists Per Game | 72.7% Free Throw Percentage

Thornton’s role on this Duke team is to provide spark, energy and toughness as well as to facilitate the offense. He’s not known as a shooter but when he does he’s most dangerous shooting threes from the right side of the court. Thornton may not play many minutes tonight, but his impact will be felt most when Duke doesn’t have the basketball.

 Austin Rivers Scouting Report 2011-2012

Austin Rivers — 31.5 mpg | 14.5 Points Per Game | 2 Assists Per Game | 11.7 Shots Per Game

Austin is well known as having one of the quickest crossovers and jab steps in the college game. He uses his deft ball-handling skills to create space for himself on the perimeter and to drive to the rim. For a player his size, he shows an excellent ability to get to the rim, shooting 57.7% of his shots up close and converting on 52.1% of them. He is least accurate in the midrange, but knows it and will play to his strengths. Rivers is the best Duke player at creating a shot for himself and takes the most shots on the Duke team. He will need to be converting at a high level for Duke to get the win.

 Andre Dawkins Scouting Report 2011-2012

Andre Dawkins — 24.6 mpg | 9.7 Points Per Game | 40.8% Three Point Percentage | 125/168 Shots are Three Pointers Read moreRead more

5
Jan

Post Entry Pass and Big Man Touch Study — Duke vs Michigan State

Duke Michigan State Miles PlumleeIn my ongoing study of how the Duke Basketball team is utilizing their big men, I can say for certain one thing: the big guys are touching the ball A LOT! I know this because of all the times I’ve had to pause the game and record who passed the big man the ball, which one caught it, and what happened after the touch. Getting through these games possession by possession takes a while, so please bear with me as I trudge along.

The beginning of this game was certainly guard-dominant, a big switch in offensive philosophy from the Presbyterian game, when Duke’s big men (Ryan Kelly, Mason Plumlee, and Miles Plumlee for the purposes of this study) touched the ball three times in the first minute of the game. Against Michigan State, it took 2:32 for the first big man to even get a hold of the basketball. As the game went on, things started to even themselves out as Duke’s bigs only touched the ball 4 less times in the first half against the Spartans (23) than they did against Presbyterian (27). By the end of the game (and I stopped keeping track when Duke went to stall ball at the 2:43 mark, Kelly and the Plumlees were involved on offense 53 times compared to 45 against Presbyterian. These are the only two games that I have recorded both touches and post-entry passes (I only did post entry passes for Belmont).

The last post was not received too well and I think I have a reason why. I’m going to present the data to you in summary form instead of by each instance of a big man touch, as that can be overwhelming. Hopefully, this leads to more response from you all in the comments section below, as the big reason I’m doing this is to spark discussion and to find out whether Duke is actually using their big men like they set out to do before the year started. I’ll present the data first and then go into my methodology and findings. Read moreRead more

24
Dec

Post Entry Pass and Big Man Touch Study — Duke vs Presbyterian

Ryan Kelly to Mason PlumleeYou might notice a slight change in the title of this post from the previous one regarding this study. Based on feedback I received from the charting of Duke’s first game against Belmont, many readers wanted to see not just who was making and receiving post entry passes, but also how many times Duke’s bigs received the ball within the flow of the offense.

Statistically, there is really only one measure that can be calculated that can even come close to figuring out how much a player is used on the offensive end. However, that stat (usage % is somewhat limited.) Let’s look at the formula and I’ll explain why it is limited and why the only way to truly calculate how many times a player is “used” on a team is to go back and review the tape.

Usage % (or Rate) Formula: 100 * ((FGA + 0.44 * FTA +TOV) * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm FGA + 0.44 * Tm FTA + Tm TOV))

If that doesn’t make sense to you, don’t worry. I’m not going to delve to far into the mathematics of it, for simplicity’s sake. What is important is the concepts behind the numbers. According to college basketball stats guru, Ken Pomeroy, he calls Usage Rate “Percentage of Possessions Used.” His description makes sense and brings those numbers into plain English:

Percentage of possessions used (%Poss): A measure of personal possessions used while the player is on the court. Simply assigns credit or blame to a player when his actions end a possession, either by missing a shot that isn’t rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover.

This formula, while the best there is available to people just looking at the box scores, heavily weighs aggressive players who take a lot of shots, commit a lot of turnovers, or make a lot of assists. Since Duke’s possessions often results from multiple passes, players do not get credit for their role within the offense when their actions don’t contribute to the end of that possession.

A big reason why I undertook this project was to see just how much of an impact duke’s big men were having in the offense. As the best available formulas out there are limited, the only way I could truly do this is to look at the tape. The added “Big Man Touch” stat (now known as BMT), will help to do this. Unfortunately, it’s nearly doubled the time it takes for me to record the stats. Bear with me as I wade through the mountains of data.

Let’s look back on the methodology for post-entry passes that I laid out in the Belmont postRead moreRead more

17
Dec

Post Entry Pass Study — Duke vs. Belmont

Leading up to the start of this season, the Duke coaching staff and players took every opportunity to make  the point that the Blue Devils would be a much more post-oriented basketball team this year. Ryan Kelly and Miles Plumlee were Duke’s representatives for ACC Operation Basketball, the annual media day in Greensboro before the season begins.

“In our program, the big guys have been the backbone of the defense,” Miles Plumlee said, “and having experience there is going to be huge.”

Mason Plumlee DunkWith Mason and Miles Plumlee as the only post-oriented big men (though not back to the basket big men) on the team, I thought it would be interesting to track post entry passes throughout the year and pay attention to a few things. First, I wanted to see who caught the entry pass and what happened to the defense immediately afterwards. Would they honor the ability of these big men or stay with the passer, choosing to respect Duke’s traditionally potent perimeter shooters? Second, I am paying attention to the result of the play, whether this resulted in a kick out to a perimeter player, another interior pass, or a move to he basket. Third, and I think most important because it helps to provide some context to what’s going on in the play and not just that it was an entry pass, I am recording whether the pass was made in a half-court set or in transition.

This is my first time doing offensive charting, so bear with me as I work out the kinks. Going through each offensive play, possession by possession is tedious work, but it’s something I’ve always been interested in. Knowing what to look for and what to pay attention as I gain experience will undoubtedly make this job easier and I’ll be able to pick up on more things because the tedious part will become second nature.

The chart below represents my findings from the first game of the year against Belmont. There are some very interesting conclusions that can be drawn from going back through the games, which I’ll present below. First, a look inside my methodology:

  1. I will only count plays where the player caught the ball in the painted area that put the player in a position to make a “scoring move”. If a player caught the ball as he was cutting through the lane, bringing him out to the perimeter, this will not count as a post entry pass.
  2. If a player catches the ball just outside the paint, but then turns to make a post move, I will list it but make a note that the ball was caught somewhere besides the paint.
  3. Most plays will be considered as occurring “Out of half-court set” as Duke has made the post entry pass much more of a part of their offense this year. I sometimes will note how the player presents himself for the pass but not always.
  4. Please provide any suggestions in the comment boxes below as I’m new at this and would love to crowd-source more concepts to examine.
Now on to the conclusions. There are a number of things that can be looked at based on the results of these specific types of plays, but I will be concentrating on those I listed above. If you want me to look at others, just let me know.  Read moreRead more

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