Project Defensive Scoresheet: (Almost) Cumulative Stats

By Tommy D — While the defensive analysis for each individual game yields interesting, and sometimes surprising insights, it stands to reason that even more meaningful information can be obtained by looking at a larger sample size.  I didn’t start charting our games until Western Michigan, so it’s not like I have the entire season to date.  But I do have 12 games done, through the first UNC game (I missed Penn too, which came right after Western Mich) so let’s take a look at the cumulative chart, then I’ll break down each player’s defensive performance individually. If you’re unsure of what some of these abbreviations and/or terms mean, check out this post.

What’s it all about Alfie?

For starters, there has been much hand-wringing among the Duke faithful this year about our defense.  And you know what?  For good reason.  Not only have we largely failed the eyeball test (save solid efforts against Virginia Tech and Maryland) but the overall numbers are not good.  An average DRating is around 101.  For these 12 games, Duke’s stands at 107.8.  By definition, that’s below average, way below actually, and by Duke’s traditional standards, it’s a lot worse than that.  No way around it.

As a team, the other number that jumps out at me is the 46% field goal shooting that we’re allowing.  Aren’t we used to around 40% or so in a “normal” year?  Also, of all possible offensive rebounds that our opponents could get, they’re grabbing 37% of them.  That’s a lot.

I’m going to leave most of the analysis of individual players’ performance in their individual sections below.  But at this point, it is worth noting that, perhaps surprisingly, the Blue Devil that grades out the best defensively this year so far is Mason Plumlee.  Not Miles, but Mason.  Miles has been terrific in a number of games, especially earlier in the ACC season but has trailed off lately.  (Looking at my crystal ball here:  he’s going to have a MONSTER game defensively at home against Maryland, right???)  But Mason is a full 4 points below the team average, which given the way these metrics work, is very significant, and indicates he is playing much, much better defense than the team as a whole.  A lot of this is due to his outstanding defensive rebounding, as he’s averaging about 6 1/2 per game over these 12 games, and 13.6 per 100 team defensive possessions that he’s on the floor for.  Defensive rebounding is a key component to overall defensive performance, both individually and for the team, for what good does it do to force a missed shot if we give up an offensive rebound and the opponent gets another opportunity?  Mason also leads the team in Stop%, which is the percentage of plays in which he’s involved on which the team gets a stop.

At the other end of the spectrum sits Andre Dawkins.  Dawkins has struggled in a number of areas defensively, and nobody should be surprised that his DRating sits at 114 or that his stop% is a meager 32%.  Giving up baskets, which he does way too frequently, is not offset by either defensive rebounding (1.5 per game, but then again he’s 6’4″ going up against small forwards primarily, but still) or forcing turnovers (about a half a TO per game) so his numbers suffer accordingly.  To be discussed more in his individual section.

So let’s look at each ballplayer on a number of metrics:

Austin Rivers

This is a guy who came in as the #1 perimeter player in his high school class, and many had him as the #1 player overall.  Because of the quality of his offensive game, primarily how good he is with the ball in his hands, and the flashiness of his game, coupled with the affluent background from which he comes, the assumption from just about everybody has been that Austin Rivers was going to be, and is, a poor defensive player, one who tolerates crossing onto the defensive end of the floor only as a means to try to hurry up and get the ball back into his own hands so he can show off some more.

For anyone who has actually watched Duke play this year, that has obviously proven to be pure gobbage.  Austin moves his feet very well, so he is not often beaten into the lane off the dribble.  He fights through screens with determination, and he has quick hands.  He is also the best defensive rebounder of our perimeter guys, by far.  I think this is a kid who knew that he would have a reputation, deserved or not, as an uninterested defender before he stepped onto Duke’s campus, and that meme would be driven home by the lemmings in the media, and he made a decision that he was going to learn how to play defense at Duke.  He chose Duke because he wanted to get better — at least that’s my belief.  And this is the area he knew he had to improve in the most, and he has.

Now, has he lost focus and concentration in off-ball situations more than anyone would prefer?  Yes.  But he has absolutely been a net asset on the defensive end, as evidenced by his 55% stop percentage — best of all the perimeter players on the team.  Here are his numbers, keeping in mind that the lower one’s overall DRating, the better one’s performance has been:

 

 

Seth Curry

Along with Rivers, Curry may be the team’s most underrated defender.  Standing only 6’2″ (if that, really) and slight of build, Seth has had some trouble with big, physical guards being able to muscle to their spots and shoot over him.  But he has made up for that in a number of ways.  Primarily he’s done it with his quick hands — he’s second on the team in forcing turnovers to Tyler Thornton, and Seth has played a lot more minutes than has Ty.  Seth is not the first to stick his nose in and take contact, and consequently has not always been the greatest help defender and does not do much to help on the boards, but he does pretty well guarding against penetration and is disruptive with those hands.

Ryan Kelly

Kelly is a tough guy to evaluate at the defensive end.  Playing the 4 position at 6’11″ as part of Duke’s three man big-guy rotation, he often has several inches on his opponent.  But because he’s not a guy with the pop-out muscles, and is not a leaper, he can get out-toughed and out-athleted.  And has.

Kelly’s primary attributes defensively are his smarts.  He is rarely out of position, rarely goes for silly fakes, and has good judgment as to when to try to take a charge.  Where he struggles, though, is in his help defense.  It’s not that he doesn’t know where to go or when or how to help.  It’s that he isn’t aggressive enough when he has to pick up a driver, or switch out to defend against a screen-type play.  Sometimes Ryan will take a step or two towards the man he needs to get to, but not pounce, not get right in his grill, and allow too much space for his opponent, who then can make a play more easily than he should.  The same goes for his boxing out.  Sometimes Ryan just doesn’t manage to get in the best position and then stick his butt out and just block his man from having any chance at an offensive rebound.  When he doesn’t do that, he can be shoved aside by stronger players, and this has happened a little too often for my taste.

So he must have lousy numbers then, right?

Not really.

Most impressively, he leads the team in FG% allowed — only 39.7%. His overall DRating is 2 points below the team as a whole – pretty nice.  In the rest of the metrics, he’s really middle of the road for our bigs.  In some, he’s better than Miles and/or Mason, on others a little worse, and in others right in between.  It’s hard to evaluate Ryan too, though, partially because his minutes have varied so much from game-to-game.  But I’ll say this:  his numbers are certainly acceptable.   Well, acceptable in context of the play of the team as a whole.  A DRating of 105.9 isn’t really very good, but it is compared to how this team has played  – and while he is not spectacular as a defender, he does block some shots, he takes charges, he denies pretty well in the post, and in general he just knows where to be.  He’s not a standout defender, but I’ll take that on my team.

Mason Plumlee

This one was a surprise to me when I ran the cumulative numbers:  Mason Plumlee has been our most effective defender this year.  He leads the team in DRating at 103.8, a full four points better than the team as a whole.  Don’t get me wrong:  I’ve liked a lot about what I’ve seen of Mason defensively this year.  Among those things are his increased strength, which has allowed him to bang with anyone he’s played against (except Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger, who ate him alive, and Miami’s Reggie Johnson, who ate him alive and swallowed him whole); his shotblocking instincts; his help defense; and his hedging.  In particular, I’ve been pleased with how Mason has hedged.  He usually gets a good push-out against the dribbler, enabling the screened man time to recover to the ball, and Mason has been adept at then finding and hustling back to his man (the original screener) wherever he has gone, which is usually towards the basket.

But Mason has given up the most hoops on the team.  Sure he’s been our primary big in most games, but he is part of a rotation with his brother and Ryan Kelly, so he hasn’t played THAT many minutes to justify all those baskets he’s given up.  Though this isn’t part of these metrics, Mason has been beaten quite a bit off the dribble, when an opponent has a big who can put it on the floor.  He just doesn’t move the puppies that well to guard off the dribble, which is surprising given what an outstanding athlete Mason is.  I expected his brother Miles, despite some shaky-at-best performances lately, to still have the best overall numbers.  Wrong again!

So where do the great numbers come from?  Almost paradoxically, despite giving up the most baskets on the team, Mason leads the squad in stop %.  He is second to his brother in %DPoss, which translates into the percentage of possessions that he’s on the floor for in which he is involved in the outcome.  This means he’s active, or that the opponent has gone at him a lot.  Or both.

But the key to Mason’s overall numbers has been his defensive rebounding.  For a “stop” is not really a “stop” unless the defense gets the rebound. Dude is snaring (I love that word) over 13 defensive boards per 100 defensive possessions that he’s on the floor for.  That’s the most on the team by a mile.  No, by 5 miles.  He has learned to position better this year, and of course he jumps extremely well, but to me the key to his rebounding has been how much stronger Mason has been with the ball.  His first two years, his hands seemed weak, or at least uncertain.  Passes would come to him and be fumbled.  Balls would bounce to him off the glass, and glance off his hands.  That is happening MUCH less now.  When he gets his mitts on it, he usually keeps it.  That’s right, he snares it.  Here are his numbers:

Andre Dawkins

I wish I could report that Andre Dawkins had turned up his intensity and focus at the defensive end from what it was last year, and had coupled that mental aspect of the game with his athletic ability to transform himself into a good defensive player.

I can’t say that.  This isn’t Pee Wee basketball, and everyone isn’t a star and everyone doesn’t get a trophy.  As far as defensive performance so far this season goes, Andre ain’t getting a trophy, fans.

While it’s true that Andre has often had to guard true small forwards, and he’s only 6’4″ himself, that doesn’t come close to accounting for his defensive shortcomings (no pun intended) this year.  His defense does not pass the eyeball test.  He is slow to get around screens, he does not guard dribble penetration well, and he is both a lousy help defender and a poor boxer-outer.  The last two I attribute to a failure to commit mentally to defense.  He loses focus a lot, loses his man, doesn’t realize when he needs to move in one direction or another to help, to pick up, to shade, to hedge.  I really don’t think he sees the floor very well defensively, and that results in him often not being in the proper position.

Here’s what his numbers look like:

Let’s see now.  The number of those metrics that Andre measures out well on is . . . none.  Yes, sometimes a big shooting guard or small forward can shoot over him, but allowing his man to shoot 60%?  The team as a whole is at 46%.  He’s just not in his man’s face enough, doesn’t have a hand up, or is just flat out beaten too much.  He’s allowed the second most field goals on the team — only 1 1/2 less than Mason, but in 77 less minutes.  He’s allowed more hoops — way more — than Rivers or Curry, and has played significantly less minutes than either of them.

His stop% of 32 is the weakest on the squad.  He’s forcing the least number of turnovers per 100 possessions of anyone on the team.  Remember, in this measurement system, taking a charge counts as forcing a turnover, so he’s not doing that at all.  The team’s failure to create turnovers has been a real departure from our traditional performance, and has contributed in a big way in my opinion to some of our offensive struggles when we have experienced them.  (I know, I know, our offensive efficiency numbers are quite good, but it sure would be nice to get some easy hoops off of turnovers, wouldn’t it?)  His defensive rebounding numbers are not very good either.  Again, you can say he’s 6’4″.  What do I know, but if he can’t help with the boards at that height, then maybe he shouldn’t be playing that small forward position.

And his overall DRating is a pretty terrible 114.  Remember, average is around 101, and this team’s average is just shy of 108.  A deviation of over six points on this metric is quite significant, and really shows how poorly Andre has played defensively this year.  I know this all sounds harsh, but I don’t mean it that way.  He seems like a great kid, and I’ve liked some of the fire and swag he’s shown at times this year, and that stroke he’s got is just a thing of beauty.  But I think the reality is that if we had a better option at the small forward position, we’d utilize it.  Gbinije and Murphy are not ready, and there’s nobody else.  I keep hoping that Dawkins will turn it on defensively, but he just hasn’t done it.  Hope springs eternal though . . .

Miles Plumlee

For most of this season, Miles Plumlee has been the best defensive player on this team.  The improvement that this guy has made over his four year career at the defensive end has truly been impressive.  For one, he has gotten so much stronger.  He really has a powerful upper body, and is tough to move off of his spot.  He always has had excellent springs, so when you couple strength with jumping ability and quickness, you’ve got something to work with.

Miles seems to really have stepped it up this year in terms of his understanding of what Duke is trying to do defensively.  He has denied the ball well in the post, hedged effectively on high ball screens, and he definitely has been our best help defender of the bigs.  There have been plenty of opportunities to help given how often we’ve been beaten into the lane off the dribble, and Miles has been very solid in that department.

Strange thing has happened the last several games though.  Miles’s defensive performance has really tailed off.  If I had done the cumulative numbers two or three weeks ago, I have no doubt that he would’ve led the team in DRating and some of the other metrics too.  But he has fallen from his lofty perch and now trails his little, I mean younger, brother in some areas.  Miles’s minutes have been inconsistent, which I think has been a result of his inconsistent defense lately, for he’s not counted on for all that much offensively.  When he’s playing the solid D as part of our 3-man big guy rotation, he gets minutes though, because we need that quality D on this team.

Here are his numbers:

A lot of those numbers are very good.  The 40.8% Field Goals allowed is just behind Kelly and Thornton for the team lead, but it’s very close.  The defensive rebounding number is solid.  He leads the team in %Def Possessions, which is evidence of just how active he’s been in there.  His stop % is OK — the team average, and the overall DRating is slightly better than the team’s as a whole.

I feel very comfortable with Miles in the game.  He’s the only senior, he knows the scheme, he is a good communicator out there, which is very important to Coach K, and I really believe this guy is what I call a “winning player,” meaning his traditional stats may not always impress, but he’s a guy you can win with.

Tyler Thornton

Thornton is an interesting guy to try to evaluate defensively.  He’s been a polarizing figure for a lot of Duke fans this year.  Supporters see him as a tough, pesky, in your face defender, an energizer bunny, a coach on the floor, and a leader.  They don’t care so much about what he doesn’t bring on the offensive end, and are content that he mainly passes the ball around on the perimeter.

Detractors see a guy who is too short to really bother anybody defensively, who is constantly being beaten off the dribble, who fouls way too much, and who has not by his mere presence galvanized the guys into excellent, or even good, defensive performances on a regular basis.

Coach K has been in the former camp, and I, only about 900 or so wins behind K, have been in the latter.  In charting the games I noted a real inability to stop dribble penetration, which is so important in our defensive scheme.  When he gets beaten, that requires help, usually from a big guy, and the whole defense gets distorted.  His ball denial on the perimeter was spotty, nor was he a terrific help defender.

But the guy’s numbers are actually pretty good.

Take a look.  He’s only giving up 40% FG shooting.  Best of the perimeter guys, clearly. Forcing 3.53 turnovers per 100 possessions.  Best on the team –well, of the regulars, anyway.  Defensive rebounding better than Curry, Dawkins, or Cook.  His other numbers are essentially right in line with Rivers and Curry, and much better than Dawkins and Quinn Cook — the latter whom many fans wanted to see take a lot of Ty’s minutes once he got healthy.  That hasn’t happened, and defense is the reason why.  That, and the leadership that program insiders continually tell us Ty brings to the locker room and to the playing floor.

I don’t know.  Maybe that Krzyzewski guy kinda, sorta knows what he’s doing.

Quinn Cook

As I said in the Tyler Thornton section, there have been a lot of Duke fans clamoring for Quinn to get more PT this year, primarily at the expense of Ty.  Quinn re-injured his knee on the China trip, and so was behind due to rehab and his conditioning was not where it needed to be at the beginning of the year.  Once he got healthy though, he quickly showed that he brings a lot more to the table offensively than does Thornton.  He’s more creative, has a better handle, sees the floor well, and can score.  For a few weeks there, he was getting some pretty good burn because of his offensive abilities.

Now, not so much.  Why? His defense, frankly, has not been very strong.  Though Thornton’s detractors point to how often he is beaten off the dribble, Quinn has the same problem.  Whether it’s because of his knee I don’t know, but his lateral quickness has not been where it needs to be, and other teams have taken advantage of that.  Nor has he played particularly good team defense in terms of helping or in switching appropriately. The thing that bugs me too about Quinn’s D is that he doesn’t appear to be very disruptive.  He doesn’t get his hands on a lot of balls, he isn’t tipping passes or deflecting balls or causing tie-ups or forcing out-and-out turnovers.  He doesn’t seem to be lacking effort or lacking the willingness to be aggressive, but I don’t see much in terms of the results of that effort and aggressiveness, and neither do the numbers.

See what I mean?  Not forcing any turnovers — not good for the point guard position at Duke.  Second worst on the team, just very very slightly better than Andre Dawkins in that department.  He’s also allowing a lot of hoops and a high shooting percentage.  Second worst stop % on the team, again just a little better than Dawkins, and the second worst overall DRating on the team.

I wouldn’t expect a big improvement from Cook this year. Hope I’m wrong on that.  But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Quinn take over as a starter next year, with a full year of experience underneath his belt and a healthy knee, and take over a leadership role as well.  Just not ready for all that this year.  As freshmen, some guys are and some guys aren’t.  He’s had some really nice moments so far, but they’ve been infrequent.  I still think this guy can be a star.  Let’s give him some time.

Josh Hairston

Josh brings tremendous energy and fight to the floor every night, and he is not without skills.  He’s a nice player to have off the bench.  He’ll never be a star, but he can contribute in a limited role.  Josh is essentially a tweener.  He has a power forward’s game, really, but he’s only 6’8″ or so, and more importantly, he is not blessed with great athletic ability.  He’s a below-the-rim player, and that really hampers his ability to be effective inside, at both ends.  On defense, he’s always asked to guard opposing 4′s, and he struggles to do so for all the reasons I just stated.  It also may be why his defensive rebounding numbers are so low.  He’s willing to body guys though, and he also has a good head on his shoulders.  He knows where to be, knows our scheme pretty well, switches, tries to take charges, so he’s got that going for him.  Which is nice.  He just gets out-athleted, which is a shame, cuz it’s not likely to change any time soon.

Michael Gbinije

You know how the fan favorite on most football teams is the backup quarterback?  Why?  Because when a football team struggles, everybody blames the QB, and many fans project all kinds of abilities onto the relatively or totally unknown backup in calling for him to get his chance to show his stuff and prove that he can lead the team to glory.

Duke fans’ talking up of Michael Gbinije this year has reminded me of that backup quarterback syndrome.  On message boards and other places, so many have called for Gbinije to get more PT or even to start, believing that he would be some kind of defensive “stopper” that would solve our defensive problems.  Why, oh why won’t Coach Krzyzewski see this?  Why won’t he put him on the floor?  Why won’t he start him?

Because, once again, this coach knows what he has before him.  What he has before him in Mike is an athletic small forward — the only one on this team — but one who is just not ready to play meaningful minutes against top competition at this level.  His defense when he has played has not been very good, and his minutes have shrunk drastically, including a string of DNP’s as we’ve gotten into the meat of the ACC season.  Mike definitely needs to get stronger, and “Silent G” as I guess they call him, is probably going to need to get less silent on defense if he wants to play a lot at Duke.  It’s called communication, and it is hugely important to Coach K.

Kid has a lot of potential, but at this point that’s all it is.  Numbers are below, but they don’t mean all that much, as the sample size is so small — only 34 minutes of action in these 12 games.