Points Will Be At A Premium For Duke Against UVA
By Ray Horn — Duke got back on the right foot last Saturday with their 81-74 over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. The Blue Devils had a commanding 32-14 inthe first half, but were pushed to the edge, and ultimately were able to close it out. Once again the defense was the biggest concern following the game. The Yellow Jackets are not a good offensive squad, but were able to put up 74 points and shoot nearly 50 percent from the field. The frontcourt defense isn’t anything spectacular, but Mason Plumlee, Miles Plumlee, Ryan Kelly and occasionally Josh Hairston have been decent, aside from guarding perimeter oriented forwards. The backcourt is where the most trouble has come from. We’ll start with Austin Rivers. In my opinion, Rivers plays pretty good on ball defense. I know Rice Jr. had a great game against him, but for the most part Rice made some tough shots or just bullied him with his size. Off the ball is where Austin really struggles, as he sometimes finds himself just not in the right position to help, or he loses his man. Tyler Thornton is a terrific team defender off the ball; however on the ball Thornton isn’t all that quick and picks up a ton of fouls. Quinn Cook so far has struggled both off the ball and on the ball, but is steadily improving. Seth Curry is terrific off the ball and actually does a good job on the ball when he is guarding someone his size or not overly quick. The problem is that Curry is very short for a shooting guard making him almost always undersized against his opponent. Andre Dawkins is very inconsistent on defense and really struggles against quick players. Michael Gbinije is pretty good in both facets, but his offense is way behind his defense and it seems that his communication level is low. Unless this team improves its perimeter defense they are going to lose earlier then they want to in the NCAA Tournament. It’s either up to Coach K to figure out a way to make these pieces work or guys are just going to have to improve.
Duke’s next opponent, the Virginia Cavaliers, the #17 ranked team in the country and are coming into Durhamon a 12 game win streak. The Cavaliers are coached by Tony Bennett, regarded as one of the best defensive coaches in the country. Virginiais known for their patient, pass heavy offense and their stingy defense. Virginia is 14-1 on the season, but have arguably only played 5 teams that have a realistic chance of fighting for an NCAA Tournament appearance, while in comparison Duke has played 8 such teams. The Cavaliers are lead by redshirt senior Mike Scott, who leads the team in scoring and rebounding. Overall, Virginia plays a tight 7 man rotation made possible because of their slow pace on offense. Make no mistake, Virginia’s calling card is on the defensive side of the floor. This is a team that is so fundamentally good on that side of the ball. Their hands, rotations and communication is a work of art. The Cavaliers are second in the country in scoring defense, 20th in field goal defense and 9th in three point defense. This is a very solid basketball team that is capable of beating anybody on a given night because of their defense.
Scouting Report
PG- #1 Jontel Evans Jr.- Evans is listed at 5’11”, but looks to be even shorter than that. Evans is very strongly built though and can get to the basket. Evans is a defensive specialist and he isn’t bad on the offensive side of the ball, but he takes less than five shots per game and only dishes out 3.5 assists. Evans is a very good on ball defender, using his strength and quickness to average 1.7 steals per game. He will check Quinn Cook and that will be a good challenge for the freshman to run the offense against. Cook does get a bit of a break on defense.
SG- #13 Sammy Zeglinski Sr.- Zeglinski is a combo guard who can run both positions in the backcourt. Almost all of the shots coming from Zeglinski are from behind the three point line where he shoots it pretty well. Zeglinski is also a good passer, but doesn’t do much off the dribble. Zeglinski isn’t a very good athlete, but has been coached up by Bennett and plays good fundamental defense. This will be a matchup with Curry, which is good for Seth. Seth’s two weaknesses are size and quickness, two things that Zeglinski lacks.
SF- #12 Joe Harris So.- Harris is a really good all around player. I love Harris’s game, he can do a little bit of everything. Harris has good size at 6’6” 210, but isn’t a great athlete. Similar to Zeglinski in his lack of athleticism is made up by his fundamentals and basketball IQ. Harris has got the size that can give Rivers problems when he is playing defense, but I just don’t see the quickness in Harris to be able to guard Austin.
PF- #23 Mike Scott Sr.- Without a doubt this is Virginia’s best player. Scott is a complete player, he can post, shoot, rebound, pass and defend. This is going to be a tough matchup for Duke’s bigs, but Scott isn’t one of those real athletic fours that like to shoot and drive from the three point line that have been giving Duke trouble. All in all, Duke really needs to contain Scott to be successful.
C- #5 Assane Sene Sr.- Sene is a big body that protects the rim, but doesn’t give you a whole lot on offense. Sene has trouble staying on the floor, usually he is foul trouble or they slide Scott to the center. Against Duke I don’t think they’re going to be able to go small, because I think Kelly can at least challenge Harris and that allows Duke to really control the paint and rebounding battle.
Bench
G/F- #22 Malcolm Brogdon Fr.- Brogdon has good size and quickness with a good ability to score the ball. He is the type of player that has been giving the Duke defense problems all season.
F- #25 Akil Mitchell So.- Mitchell is a hustle player that does a good job rebounding and doing the little things for the Cavaliers. You won’t see Mitchell taking too many shots.
Final Thoughts and Prediction
I think Bennett is going to use Malcolm Brogdon as much as possible, meaning Mike Scott at the five and Joe Harris at the four. This is going to be in attempt to spread the Duke defense out. This matchup is going to put a lot of pressure on 3, 4 and 5 spots for Duke on defense. The key is going to be stopping Scott, Harris and Brogdon, as I think Duke will handle Zeglinski and Evans. Rivers and Dawkins will have to keep Brogdon off the scoresheet and the Plumlees will have to contain Scott. The biggest matchup is Kelly vs. Harris. Harris can pull Kelly outside and take him off the dribble. While Harris isn’t overly athletic, he is very skilled. Hopefully Bennett doesn’t go with this lineup and we see more of Assane Sene. I think this is going to be a tight game for awhile, but I see one big Duke scoring run of 15-4 or something in that neighborhood and Duke being able to hold them off based on the lead built from that run. My prediction for player of the game is Seth Curry.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: DUKE:71 VIRGINIA: 62
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