Post Entry Pass and Big Man Touch Study — Duke vs Presbyterian

You might notice a slight change in the title of this post from the previous one regarding this study. Based on feedback I received from the charting of Duke’s first game against Belmont, many readers wanted to see not just who was making and receiving post entry passes, but also how many times Duke’s bigs received the ball within the flow of the offense.

Statistically, there is really only one measure that can be calculated that can even come close to figuring out how much a player is used on the offensive end. However, that stat (usage % is somewhat limited.) Let’s look at the formula and I’ll explain why it is limited and why the only way to truly calculate how many times a player is “used” on a team is to go back and review the tape.

Usage % (or Rate) Formula: 100 * ((FGA + 0.44 * FTA +TOV) * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm FGA + 0.44 * Tm FTA + Tm TOV))

If that doesn’t make sense to you, don’t worry. I’m not going to delve to far into the mathematics of it, for simplicity’s sake. What is important is the concepts behind the numbers. According to college basketball stats guru, Ken Pomeroy, he calls Usage Rate “Percentage of Possessions Used.” His description makes sense and brings those numbers into plain English:

Percentage of possessions used (%Poss): A measure of personal possessions used while the player is on the court. Simply assigns credit or blame to a player when his actions end a possession, either by missing a shot that isn’t rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover.

This formula, while the best there is available to people just looking at the box scores, heavily weighs aggressive players who take a lot of shots, commit a lot of turnovers, or make a lot of assists. Since Duke’s possessions often results from multiple passes, players do not get credit for their role within the offense when their actions don’t contribute to the end of that possession.

A big reason why I undertook this project was to see just how much of an impact duke’s big men were having in the offense. As the best available formulas out there are limited, the only way I could truly do this is to look at the tape. The added “Big Man Touch” stat (now known as BMT), will help to do this. Unfortunately, it’s nearly doubled the time it takes for me to record the stats. Bear with me as I wade through the mountains of data.

Let’s look back on the methodology for post-entry passes that I laid out in the Belmont post. 

1. I will only count plays where the player caught the ball in the painted area that put the player in a position to make a “scoring move”. If a player caught the ball as he was cutting through the lane, bringing him out to the perimeter, this will not count as a post entry pass.
2. If a player catches the ball just outside the paint, but then turns to make a post move, I will list it but make a note that the ball was caught somewhere besides the paint.
3. Most plays will be considered as occurring “Out of half-court set” as Duke has made the post entry pass much more of a part of their offense this year. I sometimes will note how the player presents himself for the pass but not always.
4. Please provide any suggestions in the comment boxes below as I’m new at this and would love to crowd-source more concepts to examine.

With the added BMT stat, I need to explain where I’m coming from there.

1. I did not count any of Josh Hairston’s stats, even though when he’s in the offense he plays the power forward role that Mason and Ryan play almost exclusively when they’re in. Just as those two do, he flashes out to the high post or perimeter to catch the first pass in the offensive set. For the purposes of this study, and to limit the amount of time I’m spending on this, I only count Mason, Miles, and Ryan’s touches.
2. Touches that are the result of rebounds by the player or deflections by the defense are not counted.
3. I did not count SLOB (SideLine Out of Bounds) plays or BLOB (BaseLine Out of Bounds) plays even though the bigs often receive these passes and a lot of times they result in points for them. Again, this is to reduce the time I spend looking back on the tape.
4. I also calculated how many points were scored on the possessions where a BMT or PEP (Post Entry Pass) occurred. I thought this was valuable to see if possessions including these events led to more or less points than possessions where they were not part of the offense.
5. In this table, I have replaced the time of game with the type of pass. I do have this data if anyone is interested, but I don’t think it is as important as I’m including BMTs and therefore there will be less time between events. Because an Entry Pass is also a Big Man Touch, Entry Passes will be noted as Both.

Please continue to let me know what you think can be improved on or what I need to tweak in the comments below.

Big Man Touches and Post Entry Passes for the Presbyterian Game

Type of Pass	Thrown By	Caught By	Scenario	Result	Points-BMT-EP
Both	Seth	Miles	Miles posts up on low block, receives entry pass	Miles missed 15' jump hook	0PTS-1BMT-1EP
BMT	Seth	Mason	2nd pass in offense, Mase on perimeter	Mason entry pass to Miles at the high post	0PTS-2BMT-1EP
Both	Mason	Miles	Miles presents to Mason on high post	Kick Out To Austin	3PTS-2BMT-2EP
BMT	Seth	Miles	1st Pass in Offense	Pass then Screen to Dre	4PTS-3BMT-2EP
BMT	Dre	Ryan	Ball Reversal on Perimeter	Pass to Seth, cut to basket	7PTS-5BMT-2EP
Both	Seth	Ryan	Give and Go w/Seth	Ryan unguarded dunk	9PTS-6BMT-3EP
Both	Seth	Ryan	Behind head pass from Seth	Up and under layup from Ryan	11PTS-7BMT-4EP
BMT	Tyler	Ryan	Pass Around Perimeter	Ryan Made 3, fouled	14PTS-8BMT-4EP
BMT	Austin	Miles	Pass Around Perimeter	Dribble Handoff to Tyler	14PTS-9BMT-4EP
Both	Tyler	Miles	Posted up just outside paint	Miles take to missed reverse layup	14PTS-10BMT-5EP
BMT	Seth	Ryan	Caught outside 3-point line @ top of key	Ryan shot fake, lost ball on dribble	14PTS-11BMT-5EP
BMT	Gbinije	Miles	Caught outside 3-line	Passed around perimeter to Tyler	14PTS-12BMT-5EP
Both	Tyler	Mason	Mason posts up on low block, receives entry pass	Fouled shooting hook	14PTS-13BMT-6EP
Both	Tyler	Mason	1st Pass in offense, Mason posts up down low	Mason Made Hook	16PTS-14BMT-7EP
BMT	Seth	Mason	1st Pass in Offense, caught outside 3-point line	Mason made layup	18PTS-15BMT-7EP
BMT	Seth	Mason	1st Pass in Offense, caught outside 3-point line	Attempted entry pass from Mason	18PTS-16BMT-7EP
Attempt	Mason	Miles	Attempted Entry pass from Mason	3 seconds on Miles	18PTS-16BMT-7EP
BMT	Austin	Ryan	Pass around perimeter	Pass to Seth	18PTS-17BMT-7EP
BMT	Seth	Mason	Caught on high post	Mase stopped on drive, kicked back out to Ryan	18PTS-18BMT-7EP
BMT	Mason	Ryan	Kick out	Entry pass to Mason	18PTS-19BMT-7EP
Both	Ryan	Mason	Ryan back to Mase	Mase made up & under	20PTS-20BMT-8EP
BMT	Seth	Mason	1st pass in offense, caught outside 3-point line	Pass to Austin	22PTS-21BMT-8EP
BMT	Quinn	Miles	1st Pass in Offense, caught outside 3-point line	Miles made layup And1	24PTS-22BMT-8EP
Both	Seth	Miles	Miles posts up on low block, receives entry pass	Miles made hook	26PTS-23BMT-9EP
Both	Tyler	Ryan	Ryan posts up on low block, receives entry pass	Ryan made layup And1	29PTS-24BMT-10EP
Both	Tyler	Ryan	Ryan posts up on low block, receives entry pass	Ryan missed shot	29PTS-25BMT-11EP
BMT	Seth	Mason	2nd Pass in Offense, caught outside 3-point line	Mason entry pass to Miles	29PTS-26BMT-11EP
Both	Mason	Miles	Miles posts up on low block, receives entry pass	Miles made hook	31PTS-27BMT-12EP
BMT	Seth	Mason	1st Pass in Offense, caught outside 3-point line	Handoff to Austin on perimeter	31PTS-28BMT-12EP
BMT	Dre	Mason	Caught outside 3-point line	Mason entry pass to Miles	31PTS-29BMT-12EP
Both	Mason	Miles	Miles posts up on low block, receives entry pass	Miles Made Jumper	33PTS-30BMT-13EP
BMT	Seth	Mason	1st Pass in Offense, caught outside 3-point line	Mason Missed Spin Hook	33PTS-31BMT-13EP
BMT	Austin	Ryan	Ryan slipped screen set for Austin, showed for ball	Ryan made jumper	35PTS-32BMT-13EP
BMT	Seth	Ryan	1st pass in offense Seth finds Ryan down low, not in position	Ryan kick out to Dre	35PTS-33BMT-13EP
BMT	Seth	Ryan	1st Pass in Offense, caught outside 3-point line	Ryan Missed Three	35PTS-34BMT-13EP
Both	Tyler	Miles	Miles posts up on low block, receives entry pass	Miles missed spin move into layup	35PTS-35BMT-14EP
Both	Quinn	Miles	Miles posts up on low block, receives entry pass	Miles turnover	35PTS-36BMT-15EP
Both	Gbinije	Miles	Miles slipped screen set for Gbinije, showed for ball	Miles dunk	37PTS-37BMT-16EP
BMT	Quinn	Ryan	1st Pass in Offense, caught outside 3-point line	Ryan pass to Gbinije on blocks	37PTS-38BMT-16EP
Both	Gbinije	Mason	Mason posts up on low block, receives entry pass	Mason kick out to Gbinije	37PTS-39BMT-17EP
Both	Gbinije	Ryan	Gbinije gets kickout from Mase, re-entry pass to ryan	Ryan missed driving layup	37PTS-40BMT-18EP
BMT	Quinn	Ryan	In Offense, caught outside 3-point line	Ryan fouled on layup	39PTS-41BMT-18EP
Both	Quinn	Mason	Mason slipped screen set for Quinn, caught ball on a rim run	Mason fouled after pump fake	39PTS-42BMT-19EP
Both	Quinn	Miles	Miles posts up on low block, receives entry pass	Miles made jump hook	41PTS-43BMT-20EP

*Note: The last record tabulated (the Miles made jump hook event) occurred with 4:08 left in the game. Because of the blowout, Todd Zafirovski came in late for Ryan Kelly and as I stated above, I am not counting Josh Hairston’s stats for brevity’s sake. There were a number of touches by Hairston over the last four minutes that I simply didn’t count so these numbers should technically be higher.

• I counted 43 Big Man Touches in this game (one of those listed was an attempt). I think this number will be a little high due to Duke trying to exploit Presbyterian’s lack of size and implement their new offense dedicated to getting the bigs the ball. I won’t know until I get to some more of the games though.
• Of those 43 BMTs: 20 were Post Entry Passes. This shows a balance between the bigs simply getting touches on the perimeter within the offense and actually getting them looks on the blocks down low.
• Of the 43 BMTs: 14 were touched by Mason, 14 were touched by Miles, and the most (15) were touched by Ryan. Again, great balance shown here.
• Of the 20 PEPs: 10 were caught by Miles, 5 were by Mason, and 5 were by Ryan. This is due to Miles playing the true center role most of his time on the court while the other two play a lot more in the high post. Mason and Ryan flash out to the high post often to receive the first pass in the offense.
• Of the 20 PEPs: Tyler threw 6 of them, 4 by Seth,  3 by Quinn, 3 by Gbinije, 3 by Mason (!), and 1 by Ryan. While Tyler’s offense has been bemoaned by many Duke fans, including Taylor Ostrick who writes here, Tyler got the ball to guys down low more often than any other in this game. Even if that big guy scored points, Tyler wouldn’t necessarily get an assist there unless his past directly led to the basket. Something to keep an eye on.
• Of Tyler’s 6 PEPs: all 6 led to shots. This is a very high number and shows that not only was Tyler getting the ball down low, the passes led to potential offense. Unfortunately, Miles went 0-2, Mason went 1-2 (but got to line on the one he missed) and Ryan went 1-2 (but got an And1 so he actually got three points out of two attempts.)
• Of the 20 PEPs: Duke shot 10-13 with two dunks, two drawn fouls, two kick outs, and one turnover. Duke was incredibly efficient on Post-Entry Passes in this game.
• Of the 23 BMTs that weren’t PEPs: 12 were thrown by Seth, 3 by Austin, 3 by Quinn, 2 by Andre, 1 by Tyler, 1 by Gbinije and 1 by Mason. This is not surprising as Seth initiated the offense much of the time. 10 of these were the first pass thrown in the offense, with 7 of those going through Mason first.
• Of Seth’s 12 BMT passes that weren’t PEPs: 8 went to Mason, 3 to Ryan, and 1 to Miles. 8 of these were the 1st pass thrown in the offense. 5 of those were to Mason, showing that the offense runs through Mason first 62.5% of the time when Seth initiates the offense and passes to a big man.

Any other conclusions you guys can draw would be very interesting. Please leave them in the comments below.

As I get more games under my belt, I’ll start compiling cumulative stats, but it’s not as important right now.

Merry Christmas and Go Duke!